I’m not going to even mention the B word…………… someone did vote for that.
They have not been drinking Chardonnay, even bad stuff. Meths or crystal meth maybe…
90,000 members of a weird cult formerly known as the Tory Party.
We’re about to:
There’s no excuse for that.
Takes no account of seat specific voting tactics…
One of my favourite quotes comes to mind…
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.
In the case of the US…
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
This is true; how many times have the Lib Dems had something like 20% of the overall vote and then got maybe ten seats.
Polls are over-rated.
The electorate is very volotile . It all depends on what happens in the next few months. If Boris wins and we have a no deal brexit the economic situation will get very nasty. We will have more things to worry about than wine prices or supply.
True, but such tactics can work both ways. How much do they cancel each other out…? All no doubt part of the famous margin of error…
Yes and no.
Given the hammering their reputation has taken over the last few years, it could be argued that polls are now underrated. Or selectively overrated.
It’s an interesting article, and it makes a very good point about the volatility of the current situation. Also, polls asking carefully worded questions about a particular issue should indeed be taken with a huge pinch of salt. They’re often commissioned by pressure groups and suchlike who know that a set of well worded questions can nudge people into giving the right answers, providing them with a favourable press release.
But that’s not what I was linking to. I’m only concerned with the good-old-fashioned Who Would You Vote For If There Were An Election Tomorrow, which I believe still has merit, especially if you ignore the blips (even when they favour your own preferences!) and look at the overall trend. Which, sadly, has been crystal clear for some months now.
A lot of careful methodological tweaking has been done in the light of 2015 and 2016, especially turnout prediction and drilling results down to constituency level; and in 2017, the polls did in fact over the course of the campaign reflect the rapid changes in public opinion, primarily caused by the most dire Tory election campaign in living memory, although Labour also managed to convince a lot of people to focus on issues other than Brexit. I can’t see either of those two things happening this time round.
And for several months now, when asking a simple question - the old favourite - these pollsters are getting a very consistent message.
But by god I hope I’m wrong.
I fear you are absolutely right
The only certain is that the future is very uncertain. If we are still in the EU on the 1st November the polls no doubt change. I’m going to be disciplined and not turn into my Twitter self though!
It’s all about the unknown unknowns!
Oh dear! and I thought this was a wine bloggers community and not yet another reason to bang on about Brexit, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
You’re right. I mean, it’s only our future as a nation we’re banging on about.
My post was about opinion polls.
damn, I was hoping for a silver lining of more affordable Brunello and Barolo
On a wine blog though? Come on!
Well, I reckon we can do both - discuss wine, and that thing outside of it called life. You can mute the conversation if you don’t wish to read it. It’s not a common theme we discuss here, but occasionally life does intrude on other discussions.
EDIT: note that we also got threads on Dips, Recipes, Holidays, Books…
You, this thread, three days ago: