Short answer - Yes! (I do hope so)
OK – I love the wines, and as vine age increases and winemakers understand their parcels of grapes more deeply I am sure that the quality can continue to grow.
However the major stumbling block is that there isn’t actually a lot of Syrah planted! Less than 0.5% of the land under vine in New Zealand is Syrah – with only 2000 tonnes of grapes in 2016.
However really interestingly – when you look at exports relative to plantings – sauvignon over-exports – ie it makes up just over 70% of the planting in NZ but nearly 85% of all exports.
All other grape varieties have a higher % planted than exported, except for Syrah which is proportionally loved in the export market….
This to me is another reason why we have hope as longterm Syrah lovers – given the global demand plantings are increasing. It’s just about finding the right sites, and then being patient….
The wine club culture in California has a long history and is a mainstay feature of the industry.
It may also be in growth, as an isolationist foreign policy may lead to a relaxing of inter-state regulations on the sales of wine – which may allow wineries to access customers directly in many more states than they are currently allowed to via the three tier American trade system.
You are right therefore in pointing out the clear challenge it poses, especially for a small winemaker who can sell direct to consumers at a full retail price. Whereas I would require a much lower wholesale price so that once shipped, duty paid and delivered to members your price is not significantly higher than their domestic retail position.
Wine club members will also buy wines on trust to gain access to iconic wines each year. Wineries can trial new things without risk of being left with stock and often wine club members are very loyal taking their allocated wines year after year.
However, many wineries also see the advantage in exporting, it’s an easy way to spread their risk a little, and it can be seen as a proof of quality. If a winemaker is prepared to allow their wines to be sold in the UK, France or Japan for example they have to be open to critical assessment – good or bad, from world respected critics.
Many Californian wineries also accept a smaller margin ability on a proportion of stock to get a more global exposure. They actively want non-Americans to try and enjoy their wines putting them in a global context.
As the buyer for the US – these wine clubs can be tricky to navigate, but so far have not caused a complete barrier to buying on any wines I truly loved and thought offered great value.
And on the positive – they can provide establishing wineries with a critical early cash flow model that will allow them to grow and improve their own quality with time.