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Brexit Planning


#21

Post Brexit (whatever that means) will existing TWS list prices be raised across the board or selectively or will that impact only be felt with the introduction of new vintages?

Has or can TWS say anything about this? While I don’t think we need to rush to stock up on Barolo or Pinot Gris I am wondering whether there is any advantage to stocking up pre-Brexit?


#22

I think it would be really good if TWS will try to deliver as many EP orders as possible before the 31st October. Can I please have my orders, especially the French ones asap:

|2016 Red Bordeaux|September 2019|
|2016 Meerlust|September 2019|
|2015 Vergelegen|September 2019|
|2017 White Rhone|October 2019|


#23

Depends whether what they say is true… if the worst case is already priced into the exchange rate now.

I for one would be interested in the currency risk management approach taken by TWS, but I guess I am in the minority.


#24

This quite accurately sums up the civil service level of knowledge of what is going to / should / might happen. I have it on fairly good authority that with regard to Brexit, the majority of departments are undermanned, swamped with ridiculous requests from government and utterly lacking in direction or clarity from our elected officials.

Those officials are sadly (unsurprisingly?) even more ignorant than the civil service. Within the House of Commons, the precise understanding of international trade and the implications for the country of the Brexit fuckwittery could be written on a couple of A4 pages.

One tiny, possible bright spark is that the ridiculous value I fear the pound will sink to might make your business (forgive my ignorance, I don’t know what you export) a very attractive proposition to Europeans and boost your revenue.


#25

Are you worried about the duty level? Could you just transfer the wine over to duty paid in the warehouse?

Wine duty could I suppose raise possibly if there a mini trade war, but not likely I think. The government all like a nice claret don’t they!


#26

Nobody know what they’re doing, if they do they’re not letting on. Fail to plan and plan to fail!


#27

Yes, indeed. I plan to transfer everything into duty (and VAT) paid asap before they go up, but can only do that once the wine is available to me.


#28

The title of this thread is of course an oxymoron.

Maybe the first time a supposedly mature democracy chooses to commit suicide?


#29

Why do you think either would change? - both would put massive risk on the the Exchequer as spending would decrease.

We’ve discussed tariffs on previous posts and the amount is negligible.


#30

The sterling exchange rate is in my opinion a good barometer of what will happen. It is determined by those who have large amounts of money at stake, largely parties outside the UK. It indicates to me that prices will rise across the board, and therefore I would like to be ahead of that game and fix my costs. I run a business and have put most of my money in USD and EUR. As I said before, I plan to pay the duty and VAT on my wines asap, before they go up.


#31

but you haven’t said why you expect both to go up ?

Agree prices will rise but you have already purchased your wine. Given duty and vat are in sterling these aren’t directly affected by the exchange rate fluctuations


#32

Economy down, tax revenue down, taxes up, simples.


#33

bizarrely it doesn’t always work like that - sometimes to stimulate the economy and get money out of savings accounts etc you reduce Taxes.

It is far more costly to pay unemployment payment when jobs are lost !


#34

We will have to see what happens, I have just relayed my views. Time will tell, I hope you are right.


#35

As far as I understand it they are available to you as soon as TWS receive them, however TWS have no control over when the estates do the bottling.


#36

The import duty will go on any wine reaching the UK after Brexit. It is ‘only’ 8.5 p/bottle, but it is inevitable (and will then have VAT on top, so the actual cost is higher). If any of the FTAs with countries outside the EU are rolled over in time (e.g. Chile, South Africa), those countries won’t pay duty, so the relative price of EU wines will rise. So unless you expect the government to lower UK alcohol duties to help people to drown their sorrows or celebrate, the price will go up, and taking wine out of bond, if possible, makes sense, but may be less important than rushing to buy wine already on TWS shelves. The exchange rate will (continue to) fall. TWS has said it is doing some forward hedging, so prices shouldn’t all rise on day 1, but over time they will.

Shortages of fresh fruit, veg, medicines etc., may mean that we all need to buy more wine if nothing else is available.


#37

The contract with TWS for EPs is for wines delivered duty unpaid (ie in bond) Stevenage. It is sadly (as it affects the profitability of our society) for them to cover import tariffs should they change between your purchase and the wines being shipped (they may have taken insurance against this)…I don’t believe there is anything in the T&Cs of purchase to cover this

Taking out of bond, wines that you have already purchased, has nothing to do with import tariffs as its alcohol duty - two very separate things


#38

The T&C don’t actually say anything about import duty, either that it is or is not included. Normally it would not be already paid for goods in bond.


#39

it would be - its the importer who has to pay it to be able to put the goods for sale in the UK - even if they are being sold without VAT or alcohol duty being paid.


#40

If you read the full details on En Primeur buying it does say very specifically that you initially pay the price without duty or VAT and then must pay those taxes when you take them out of bond. I think pretty much all the En Primeur dealers operate in this way. Some people keep them in bond in the hope of opportunities like when they cut the VAT rate for a short while a few years ago. But personally I figure that taxes normally go up rather than down so take mine out immediately.